The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is significantly impacting international air traffic and, consequently, also Italian airports. According to an analysis by the AIRDATA® platform of AirAdvisor, in recent weeks, flight cancellations in Italy have more than doubled, marking a clear change in scenario compared to the previous period.
In the week between February 21 and February 27, cancellations averaged 1.05% of flights. This figure quickly rose to 2.69% during the most critical period between February 28 and March 5, before slightly decreasing to 1.81% in the following days, remaining well above pre-crisis levels.
An immediate impact was also recorded at the main Italian hub, Rome Fiumicino Airport, where 49 flights were canceled in the first two days of disruptions.
Airlines' strategies: fewer delays, more cancellations
The most significant data concerns the change in approach of airlines. With the closure or limitation of some corridors in Middle Eastern airspace, carriers found themselves managing a high level of operational uncertainty.
To avoid cascading delays along international routes, many airlines chose to preemptively cancel some flights, thus keeping the overall network more stable. This strategy explains an anomaly in the data: while cancellations increased, delays exceeding 60 minutes decreased during the most acute phase of the crisis.
“Airlines have effectively reorganized their schedules to avoid cascading delays in their networks”, explained Anton Radchenko, CEO of AirAdvisor. “Operating in disrupted airspace can generate domino effects on multiple routes: for this reason, in many cases, it was preferred to cancel some flights rather than accumulate very long delays”.
The adjustment phase: fewer cancellations, longer delays
After March 6, with a gradual stabilization of the situation, the number of cancellations began to decrease. However, there was a significant increase in the duration of delays.
Between March 6 and March 9, flights accumulated average delays of about 144 minutes, well above the approximately 105 minutes recorded before the crisis. A sign of the difficulties related to the repositioning of aircraft and crews and the reconstruction of schedules.
Most affected routes and the “domino effect”
The heaviest consequences were recorded on high-frequency routes between Italy and the Middle East. Connections with Doha and Tel Aviv suffered massive cancellations, with peaks of up to 91% on some routes between Milan Malpensa and Doha and about 58% between Tel Aviv and Rome Fiumicino.
Numbers that highlight the so-called “domino effect” of air transport: when a strategic corridor is lost, the impact quickly spreads across the entire global network.
The case of ITA Airways
ITA Airways also had to adapt its operations to the new context. Between February 28 and March 5, the airline operated 6,866 flights, with 2.46% subject to delays exceeding 60 minutes and an average of 142 minutes.
In the subsequent phase, between March 6 and March 9, the average delay rose further to 169 minutes, confirming the difficulties in the recovery and reorganization phase of the network.
Passenger rights: what to know
From a regulatory perspective, cancellations related to geopolitical crises fall under the so-called “extraordinary circumstances”, as provided for by EU Regulation 261/2004. This means that, in most cases, no standard financial compensation is provided.
However, assistance interventions remain mandatory: meals, drinks, possible accommodation in hotels, and rebooking on alternative flights.
For passengers, in a phase still characterized by instability, the advice is to constantly monitor the status of their flight, keep all travel documentation, and carefully evaluate the options offered by airlines, especially in case of sudden changes or cancellations.
