AIDIT records the recovery of organized tourism after the phase of geopolitical uncertainty

The Italian organized tourism finally returns to register positive signals, after months marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the alarm generated around the price and availability of jet fuel. However, the recovery of recent weeks does not seem sufficient to compensate for the lost sales volume during the crucial phase of summer planning.

This is what emerges from the AIDIT Federturismo Confindustria Observatory of July 2026, conducted on a sample of 242 travel agencies distributed throughout the national territory, with the aim of detecting the actual sales trend and the sentiment of operators in the midst of the summer season.

This is the "snapshot" taken by the Italian Association of Tourism Distribution: compared to the previous month, 64% of agencies describe summer sales as stable or growing. However, there remains a very large area of suffering, affecting the remaining 36% of the sample. The conjunctural improvement does not change the assessment of the entire exercise: only one agency in four expects to close 2026 with results equal to or better than those of 2025. About 75% of operators estimate a negative annual balance, and for 42.1%, the decline will be marked.

The recovery is therefore real, but late. The recovery of bookings in recent weeks is not able to fully restore the sales portfolio that normally forms in the advance booking months.

The geopolitical uncertainty and the strong media exposure reserved for the issue of jet fuel have led many travelers to postpone their purchase decision. This has created a real funnel effect, with a concentration of bookings close to departure.

Only 11.6% of agencies report booking times comparable to those of last year. For 46% of the sample, the purchase window has significantly shortened, while 33.6% report a clear prevalence of last minute bookings. The data confirms that the desire to travel has not diminished, but has long been hindered by caution. Demand is now returning to the market, but with faster, less programmable, and more complex management methods for the entire supply chain. The most encouraging data concerns cancellations. For about three-quarters of agencies, they are now a phenomenon that has been overcome, confined to the most critical phase of the Middle Eastern crisis. The remaining part of the sample reports only limited and physiological episodes.

Operators also report a gradual restoration of customer confidence. Fears related to the possibility of not departing or the operational continuity of air connections seem to have diminished.

However, the economic conditioning determined by the cost of transport, particularly air tickets, remains very strong: 87.5% of agencies state that the increase in prices affects, with varying intensity, customer choices. Travelers' preferences are mainly oriented towards Italy and the Mediterranean Europe. Among the most requested destinations and products are Egypt, the Red Sea, and cruises. Northern Europe seems to have benefited from greater attention towards products perceived as reliable, climatically pleasant, and suitable for a more conscious trip.

The geopolitical scenario remains the main factor behind the reduction in advance booking, indicated by 64.4% of agencies. For 41.9%, it has also led to a decrease in requests for areas perceived as more exposed, while 29.2% report a shift in choices from the Middle East to alternative destinations. Despite the increase in transport costs, 48.5% of agencies state that customers have not substantially changed their travel habits.

32.5% report a greater use of the car, mainly associated with the choice of Italian destinations, while 10.8% note a growth in cruises as an alternative to the traditional package consisting of flight and hotel stay.

For 41.4% of agencies, the average budget allocated to vacation remains below 2,000 euros; for about a third, it is between 2,000 and 3,000 euros.

The economic factor is currently the primary evaluation criterion for 52.1% of the sample. The geopolitical situation is indicated as the prevailing element by 19.2%, while for 27.8%, prices and the international scenario have an equivalent weight.

«The data – says Donato Pellegrino, president of AIDIT Federturismo Confindustria - finally gives us a signal of recovery and confirms that Italians have not lost the desire to travel. Cancellations are now residual, confidence is returning, and bookings have started to move again. However, we must be very clear: a tourist season is not built only in the weeks immediately preceding departure».

The recovery is there, but it is not enough to recover the losses.

«Organized tourism – continues - has suffered a halt precisely in the months when the most substantial part of summer sales normally forms. The current recovery is positive, but it comes too late to fully compensate for the accumulated damage. Three out of four agencies still expect to close 2026 below the results of the previous year. The media exposure on the possible consequences of the Middle Eastern crisis and on jet fuel has fueled consumer fears often disproportionate to operational reality, leading many to suspend or postpone their bookings. Today the market shows that the desire to leave remained intact: it simply concentrated on last minute bookings. This reduces the planning capacity of businesses, restricts the availability of the best products, and can make it more difficult to find the desired economic conditions».

In times of uncertainty, correct information and the support of travel agencies are essential.

«The lesson - concludes Pellegrino - is that, in times of uncertainty, accurate, balanced, and verified information is needed. And the consultancy of travel agencies is necessary, which have continued to assist, reassure, and guide customers, distinguishing real risks from amplified perceptions. The return of bookings once again confirms the value of organized tourism as a bastion of competence and trust».

source: https://aidit.it/

Photo credit: Matthew Smith for Unsplash